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January versus August

January 8th, 2010

Back in August, the talk was all about running backs and AP was the savior. Well, it turned out that AP had a good year and CJ a great year, but QBs in general were the stars. There are many scoring systems, but using ESPN’s let’s see how FSO did.

Top 5 actual scorers included CJ, Rodgers, Brees, Farve and Peyton. Our top 5 scorers as projected were all QBs,”very interesting”, they were: Peyton. Brees, Brady, Rivers and Warner. So a B for picks and an A for position. By the way, The Rodgers surge has led to an improvement in the algorithms that will be available next July. It was used at mid year in Data Sense and rated both CJ and Rodgers higher. However, it was not there in August.Regarding QBs alone, we over rated Cutler and Ryan, but did rate Big Ben and McNabb highly, both of whom had good years.

Regarding running backs, it was not very good. We had Forte, T. Jones, on top, with D.Williams, Portis, LT, Slaton, CJ, Westbrook, Jones-Drew and AP in our second tier. Jones, CJ, Jones-Drew and AP did well, but the rest did not measure up to top 10 ratings. We did rank RB as a position as #2, so an A there, but did not burn up the league in picking the top 10, a C-. Due to the unique risk factor in FSO’s predictor, we had Turner rated way lower than others, good show.

We rated WR as the #3, and that is where they turned out. An A for position. FSO’s top picks were Fitzgerald, A. Johnson, C.Johnson, Jennings, Bryant, Smith of Carolina, Wayne, Moss, White Ownes and Marshall. Of those, A.Johnson, Moss, Fitz, Wayne, White,and Marshall excelled. The disappointmentswere Bryant, Owens and Smith of Carolina, right name, just wrong team. We missed on Austin, rated #98 and on DeSean, though we rated him as #26. A “B”; for the players.

We rated top TEs, top D/ST and top PK about the same, with a slight edge to TEs, then Ds. This is the way that they turned out. Out top TEs included Tony G.,Witten, Dallas Clark, Carlson, Gates, Cooley, and Daniels. We missed on Carlson and did not forecast Vernon Davis big year, but overall did well. Injuries killed Daniels and Cooley, but an A- for players and an A for position.

D/ST was rated slightly higher than PKs and it turned out that way. So an “A” for position, let’s review the actual teams. We hit on 4 ot the top 8. FSO predicted good things from the Ravens, Jets, Eagles and Packers, but also from the Bears, Tampa, Cleveland, and the Titans. A C+ for team picking as our less than expected still finished in the lower middle third, not a complete bust. Many rated the Giants and Redskins, much higher, than did the August version of FSO. Glad we avoided them.

Kickers came in last in points, but were still important. An A for position, and here is how we did actually on the players. Our top kickers included Gostkowski, Akers, Longwell, Crosby, Elam and Kaeding.
Kaeding, Akers, Longwell finished 1-2-3. G—ski finished 6th. Damn good I say and an A is awarded.

So on positions, we hit the nail on the head, 7 out of 7. We averaged a B- on players with RBs the biggest disappointment. Next year with the improvements in the predictors on an individual basis, along with the improved mechanics on Live Cheet Sheets, we will be ready to roll for the draft leagues. For points leagues and rotisserie leagues The Optimizer will make it seem simple. Enjoy the playoffs and FSO looks forward to serving you in 2010.

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